The Q1 of 2023 has been tumultuous, with political and financial systems facing a lot of uncertainty. Inflation is looming large and it’s difficult to predict what’s in store for the future. To get a better understanding of the upcoming risks and opportunities, we reached out to some experts in the field. The findings are interesting and we’re excited to present a series of articles that delve into their predictions. From the world of finance to new energy, we’ve got you covered with insights that will help you navigate the stormy waters of the rest of 2023.
Mar 29, 2023 | BRIAN P. KLEIN
This year is sizing up to be full of significant political-military risks. One of the most concerning is whether Russia’s President Vladimir Putin becomes increasingly desperate in his attempts to occupy and control Ukraine.
If the conventional battlefield turns against him, then he may use tactical nuclear bombs or other unconventional weapons. The U.S. and NATO would be compelled to intervene. Putin’s spring offensive is likely to be a turning point in the direction of the war.
China may also see deepening U.S. military engagement in Europe as an opportunity to try and take Taiwan by force. Expect Beijing to engage in increasingly provocative actions (more overflights and naval exercises) in an attempt to influence Taiwan’s domestic politics. Elections are slated for early 2024.
In the economic sphere, global inflation and recession fears should ease in the latter part of 2023, absent major conflict, as talk of a U.S. hard landing declines. China’s re-opening may also temporarily add to short-term global growth, though longer term trends point to a “new normal” of slower GDP expansion.
Continuing tensions will continue to drag, however, on the overall U.S.-China relationship, despite trade continuing. India and Indonesia are the potential growth stars of the year as demand remains strong and major corporations continue to shift manufacturing. Favorable demographics also point to years of potential growth.
Other bright spots for 2023 include an increase in alternative/green energy investment. Solar and wind are beginning to supplant oil, gas, and coal.
Expect major investments in battery technology, electrical grid upgrades, and charging stations in major economies around the world.
The energy transition is a decades-long trend that will create tremendous growth in new manufacturing, materials, and skilled jobs. Significant gains are just beginning to be realized.
Brian P. Klein is Founder and Chief Global Strategist of RidgePoint Global, a strategic advisory firm, and a former U.S. diplomat. Brian is a contributing writer for Barron’s and the South China Morning Post.
